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Politiques tarifaires de l’eau, sécurité alimentaire et vulnérabilité climatique au Sénégal : un modèle d’équilibre général calculable éclairé par une enquête ménages

Abstract : Ten years after the privatization reform, the urban drinking water sector is considered as a success in Africa. Our households survey (Dakar, 2005) mitigates this conclusion. Firstly, the results show that three important drinking water sources exist: private connection and standposts (improved services) and resale by the neighbors. Secondly, the econometric demand models we estimate reveal characteristics of households who are connected to the piped water network and characteristics of households who use standposts. We conclude that level of richness (habitat characteristics), elimination of illiteracy, to be a widowed woman and to be owner increase the probability to be connected to the piped water network. To be tenant and to prefer daily water expenditure (incomes irregularity) increase the probability of using standposts. Distance to standposts (opportunity cost of time spent collecting water) influences the choice to use them. Lastly, Willingness to Pay survey reveals that households who are not connected to the piped water network are not laid out to pay more for services improvements. Results are used to define specifications of a static and a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The simulations of these models describe the effects of constraints on the water resources availability and the effects of water pricing policies. The static version describes the strong vulnerability of the Senegalese economy to hydric deficit. The dynamic version shows that marginal cost water pricing (with a subsidy ensuring the survival of the water production sector) makes it possible in the long term to absorb the shock of the resource shortage. GDP, investment and welfare increase. Unemployment drops and the sectors of rain rice, market gardening and drinking water distribution grow. In contrast, the current policy of average cost pricing of water leads the long-term economy in a recession with an agricultural production decrease, a strong degradation of welfare and a rise of unemployment. This result goes against the directives of international organizations that impose budget equilibrium to the water companies. This thesis questions the basic tariff (average cost) on which block water pricing is based in Senegal.
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Anne Briand. Politiques tarifaires de l’eau, sécurité alimentaire et vulnérabilité climatique au Sénégal : un modèle d’équilibre général calculable éclairé par une enquête ménages. Économie et finance quantitative [q-fin]. Université de Rouen, France, 2006. Français. ⟨tel-02467952⟩

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