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Quelles conséquences du changement climatique sur le blé tendre en Normandie aux horizons 2050 et 2100 ? Etude d’impact prospective à partir du modèle ALADIN-Climat

Abstract : In Normandy, climate change is expected to drastically impact the crop cycle of soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) which ranks in the main cultivated crops in this area (with 24% of the Utilised Agricultural Land). This study proposes to project cereal phenology and performances by the end of the 21st century based on the CNRM-2014 data extracted from ALADIN-Climat (regional model) for three RCPs. In the context of pronounced climate change, along with unchanged sowing dates by 2050 and 2100, the increase in temperatures would lead to shorten the crop cycle, and hence to a date shift in the plant phenology. Consequently, there would be a shorter overlap between the end of the crop cycle and the summer period and, usually characterized by heat waves and water stress events which are expected to occur more often. Thus high temperature triggered scalding would not be observed as much as expected and the cumulated water limitation would be also lower. However, because of this precocity, emerging consequences might be expected regarding deleterious effects of lower temperatures during meiosis, and decrease of solar radiation at the onset of stem elongation. Mild winters would also reduce the days of vernalization, limiting cold requirements during tillering. This study demonstrates the use of bioclimatic models to unravel the crop phenology modifications, expected to occur by the end of the century, under the main environmental climatic drivers.
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https://hal-normandie-univ.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02447380
Contributor : Olivier Cantat <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, January 21, 2020 - 3:33:13 PM
Last modification on : Sunday, October 25, 2020 - 7:07:53 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02447380, version 1

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François Beauvais, Olivier Cantat, Philippe Madeline, Patrick Le Gouée, Sophie Brunel-Muguet, et al.. Quelles conséquences du changement climatique sur le blé tendre en Normandie aux horizons 2050 et 2100 ? Etude d’impact prospective à partir du modèle ALADIN-Climat. Climatologie, Association internationale de climatologie, 2020, vol. 16, pp.129-160. ⟨hal-02447380⟩

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