, Some of the MDGs have already been achieved, but attainment of the health-related goals (MDGs 4 and 5) seems unlikely, even infeasible. 63 Therefore, this section looks at how much additional public spending is needed to reach some of the goals. Moreover, some MDGs have a feedback effect on the other MDGs. For instance, the AIDS MDG (MDG6), which will probably be reached, directly affects MDG4 and MDG5. More mothers who are HIV-positive die giving birth than those who are HIV-negative. The same is true for under-five mortality. 64 Thus, investing in this particular MDG will also have positive effects on the other MDGs. The purpose is not to impose any hierarchy on the MDGs, but to try to simulate an improvement in the general situation within the time constraints. Simulations are run based on the following scenarios: Scenario 1: how much would it take to reach all the MDGs by 2015?, A key question that needs answering is whether South Africa can achieve the MDGs, considering that 2015 is just a few years away
, Scenario 2: how much would it take to reach MDG2 (universal education) in 2015? Scenario 3: how much would it take to reach MDG6 (HIV indicator, 2015? Scenario 4: can MDG6 be reached through a fiscal reform
, Scenario 1: reach all MDGs by, 2015.
, Here, the model does not solve, which means that reaching all the MDGs within four years is not feasible. To reach this conclusion, the results of the empirical studies showed that some of the MDGs (MDG4 and MDG5) are unattainable, as the values are too far away from each other to make it feasible to reach the target within four years. For instance, the initial (or current) value for MDG4 is 104, 65 whereas the MDG4 target is 20. The same is observed for MDG5, whose initial value is 625 66 and target value, 2015.
, See for example the MDG SA report, p.60, 2010.
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