A Retrospective Look at How Well a Macro-Micro Model Can Analyze the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on a Developing Country

Margaret Chitiga , Bernard Decaluwé (1) , Ramos Mabugu , Helene Maisonnave (2) , Veronique Robichaud , Debra Shepherd , Servaas van Der Berg , Dieter Von Fintel

1 ULaval - Université Laval [Québec]
2 ULH - Université Le Havre Normandie

This article is a follow-up to one that looked at the impact of the economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa using a macro-micro modeling technique. The current article's contribution is to position the results of the first article in the context of the actual effects of the crisis. Hence, this article offers a comparative analysis between the results of the modeling with the actual observed outcomes. It also offers explanations for why some model results are different from what obtained in the country after the crisis period.

Keywords: child poverty; South Africa; CGE model; microsimulation

Domains: Quantitative Finance [q-fin]

Margaret Chitiga, Bernard Decaluwé, Ramos Mabugu, Helene Maisonnave, Veronique Robichaud, et al.. A Retrospective Look at How Well a Macro-Micro Model Can Analyze the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on a Developing Country. Poverty and Public Policy, 2015. ⟨hal-02314217⟩